COMMENTARY | State after state in the Republican nomination shows an incredible amount of apathy among GOP voters. The fractions of registered Republicans showing up are frighteningly small. When compared to Republican candidates and voting patterns in 2008, the trend is even scarier for the GOP. The question is why this is happening, and whether the nominee has any chance to defeat Barack Obama.
The anemic numbers from Iowa and New Hampshire have been noted, as have the huge gap between voters in Florida and Nevada compared to the turnout in 2008. But now to the list of dramatically lower turnout we must add the states that held their primaries on Feb. 7 (Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri) and Saturday (Maine). Only South Carolina has shown any measure of political excitement this primary season.
Myth 1: Everyone Is Staying Home Because They Think Romney Has Wrapped It Up.
That myth was advanced by Ari Fleischer and John Sununu. But turnout was at its highest after the New Hampshire primary, when Romney looked the most dominant. Even when polls showed a tight contest between Romney and Rick Santorum, turnout was almost 50 percent lower than in 2008 in Colorado.
Myth 2: It's The Weather That Is To Blame For The Low Turnouts.
One county in Maine (Washington), "had to cancel" its caucus (as Ron Paul supporters cried foul) due to bad weather, but that affected only 200 voters. Out of the 258,000 registered Republicans in Maine, only about 2 percent showed up Saturday . It's not as though the Midwest and New England states are only holding their elections in the winter this year. What explains Florida's low turnout? You can't hang this one on Mother Nature.
Myth 3: At Least The 2012 Choice Of Candidates Isn't As Bad As 2008
Actually, the Republicans should yearn for those 2008 candidates. Nearly two-thirds of GOP voters in 2008 rated their candidates as excellent or good, while less than 50 percent do so in 2012 . The field of Romney, Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul just don't stack up to John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, according to Republican voters. And in 2008, Republican candidates were weighed down by an unpopular incumbent in office. In 2012, Republicans face what should be a beatable incumbent, yet can't seem to ignite much passion in their own voters.
Myth 4: At Least More Republicans Are Voting In Primaries Than Democrats.
In fact, the opposite might well be the case. Democrats have higher enthusiasm levels than Republicans, even when President Barack Obama's approval ratings plummeted after his inauguration. More voters participated in the uncontested Colorado Democratic Party Primary (80,000) than showed up at the hotly contested Colorado Republican Party Primary (65,000, or perhaps even lower), according to The Guardian. If that's not a danger sign for the GOP, I don't know what is.
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